Syria won’t fall – not this time! (Final Part) – by Dr. Nakvisson
Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad with commanders of the
Syrian army [Source: http://www.presidentassad.net%5D
Despite a fully-fledged odious media campaign to demonise the Syrian government and full backing to the rebels by the NATO-US-Saudi-Zionist ”quadroika”, many parameters point to survival of the current Syrian government. A Salafist-led rebellion is not legitimate or strong enough to topple Bashar al-Assad. The quadroika will need to employ other methods than merely a Salafist-led engineered rebellion relying on non-Syrian terrorists in order to make Syria fall. And that may very well happen in the future. But for now, Syria won’t fall – not this time!
After a brief description of the background of the current situation in Syria in Part 1, now let’s have a look at some of the parameters that point to a high probability that Syria won’t fall, at least this time.
Not a Syrian people’s movement
I touched upon it in Part 1, but it is such an important factor that I find it necessary to reiterate that the rebellion in Syria is not a people’s movement. That is why we have not seen any large-scale countrywide movement involving Syrian people demanding ouster of Bashar Al-Assad, unlike Egypt or Tunisia, even Libya. And of course it is unlike the movement in Bahrain, but the Bahrain revolution is of least interest for the pro-Zionist Western countries and that is why there is no mentioning of the Bahrain movement in the mainstream media. The majority still seems to be supporting President Bashar al-Assad but as fear looms around in Syria due to the Free Syrian Army’s brutal and cowardly attacks on civilians as well as soldiers, and the combats between the army and the rebels continue, there is no avenue for menifestation of street power or public support. As soon as calm returns to most parts of the country and it is considered safe, we must expect mass demonstrations in support of President Bashar al-Assad. However, there still are a lot of people, not the majority though, who would like Assad go. But they may not necessarily support the Salafist rebels rather they would prefer diplomatic solutions.
The Syrian army vs. the rebels
The Syrian army is one of the most professionals armies in the region. That is why the Syrian troops were stationed in Syria for a long time upon request from Lebanon in order to protect it against Israeli aggression. As a result of a well-hatched evil plot starting murder of Rafique Hariri and its blame being laid on Syria, the Syrian troops were forced to leave Lebanon in 2006 before Israel attacked Lebanon. The point is that the Syrian army is considered professional and strong. Moreover, the army, as claimed by some Western media, consists mainly of Alawites. Hence, there is little chance that there will be any defecting from senior army generals or mutiny. Moreover, their track record so far shows full dedication to the cause of crushing the terrorist Salafist rebels. There is little chance that the Syria army will be defeated as a result of lack of motivation or lack of belief in their president. Most of the rebels on the other hand are not Syrians in the first place. They consist of imported terrorists from Iraq (the re-stationed al-Qaida terrorists), Saudi Arabia, Somalia and even Pakistan as per some reports. That is why there have been reports that the rebels have set the corpses of their dead comrades on fire in order to conceal their nationalities. All the rebels do not seem to be well-trained soldiers either. It is the sophisticated weapons supplied from the West via Turkey and possibly other borders and money from Saudi Arabia and Qatar that has made them go so far. But there are reports of the Syrian army inflicting heavy losses on them as well as hundreds surrendering to the army in different places.
The guerilla war prospects
The guerilla war that the Salafist terrorist rebels belonging to the Free Syrian Army claim to continue for long time cannot go on. The army would have to engage the rebels on two fronts, the borders with Iraq, Turkey and Lebanon as well as in the cities. But the Syrian army can easily surround the rebels in the cities and block the NATO-US-Saudi-Zionist supply of weapons and ammunition to them. The rebels would have to rely on the existing ammunition and that will not last forever. The rebels would have two ways left: die as ”martyrs” or surrender – the latter seems more probable.
The diplomatic factors
Despite that the Syrian government may have deviated from some points given in the Kofi Annan peace plan for Syria while the rebels have violated the ceasefire agreements more than once, Kofi Annan is still there and proactive in solving the conflict diplomatically. Despite all the warmongering efforts by the USA, Israel and Turkey, there is no indication that the Kofi Annan peace plan is not effective any more. And there are efforts from Russia and China and some other European countries that are not in the favour of any aggression on Syria. Furthermore, in spite of the USA denying Iran’s significance in the peace process, Iran is diplomatically active and has several times called for all the Syrian opposition members for talks.
The Russia factor
Russia is not engaged only diplomatically but also keeps showing its support for the Assad government by sending mighty signs to the NATO-US-Saudi-Zionist quadroika in the form of despatching its warships to Syrian waters or by making statements that warn the quadroika of the repercussions of any aggression on Syria from the outside. Also, it is there to veto any UN resolutions against the current Syrian government. As long as Russia stays on Assad’s side, its weight will continue to prevent any foreign aggression on Syria as well as allow the Syrian government to finish off the job by crushing the illegitimate, foreign-incited rebellion inside its borders.
The Iran and Hezbollah factor
No matter how much the NATO-US-Saudi-Zionist quadroika despise Iran, it is a regional power with influence on its neighbouring countries. Irana lso has a joint defence agreement with Syria and in case of any aggression on Syria from the outside, Iran may also get involved. The repercussions will be fatal in terms of regional and international security as well as world economy. Hezbollah on the other hand may also get involved as a result of Iran’s involvement, something which will engulf the whole region into the flames of war. A foreign aggression on Syria will have its consequences not less fatal than an aggression on Iran.
No attack on Syria so far means no attack!
So, a foreign aggression-based toppling of Bashar al-Assad does not seem likely. Despite all the hue and cry by some of the Zionist Western governments, the NATO-US-Saudi-Zionist quadroika, Turkey and some other opportunist governments around the world, all of whom have accused Syria of ‘human rights” violations and ”war crimes” in Houla and Aleppo – and despite their strong wish of invading Syria, they could not manage to do so until now. The US-NATO-Saudi-Zionist quadroika will try to avoid any direct involvement in attacking Syria. They have so far been relying on Turkey to do the dirty job but the diplomatic factors, the Iran and Hezbollah factors and the Russia factor have so far prevented them from doing so. So it is the rebels in the form of Free Syrian Army who are the last hope of the quadroika for ouster of Preseident Bashar al-Assad, who still enjoys support by majority of the Syrians.
Damascus is free and Aleppo is the key!
Damascus has been freed by the Syrian army and the rebels have retreated, surrendered or been killed. At the time of writing up of this blog the Syrian army is inflicting heavy losses on the rebels in the Aleppo area while fierce fighting continues along the borders. Aleppo is the last chance for the rebels to get hold of an area where they could have sort of autonomy, Benghazi style. And the NATO-US-Saudi-Zionist quadroika may be willing to put a lot on stake to make sure that the rebels achieve victory in Aleppo. On the other hand, even in the mainstream media it has been reported that there is little hope for the rebels to win over the Syrian army. As soon as the rebels are crushed in Aleppo, bulk of the work is done. The Syrian army will then focus on the areas along the border, eventually killing the rebels or pushing them back into Turkey. Along the Iraqi border, the rebels may be crushed between the Syrian and the Iraqi forces. What will happen along the Lebanese border is unclear – probably they will be pushed back into Lebanon.
Not this time!
Despite It is unacceptable for the NATO-US-Saudi-Zionist quadroika that Bashar al-Assad remains in power or perhaps that Syria remains a unified entity in the long-run. The ”fall of Syria” is a must before the link between Iran and Hezbollah can be broken. But many parameters make it unlikely that the Salafist-led rebellion will succeed in making Syria fall this time. It is highly likely that the rebels will be crushed. The NATO-US-Saudi-Zionist quadroika will need to employ other methods than merely a Salafist-led engineered rebellion relying on non-Syrian terrorists in order to make Syria fall. And that may very well happen in the future. But for now, Syria won’t fall – not this time!
[Dr. Nakvisson is an energy expert and a freelance journalist from Norway.]
http://www.youtube.com/nakvisson
Twitter: @Nakvisson
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